Expected Value (EV) Calculator
Free +EV betting calculator. Enter the sportsbook price and either the no-vig fair odds or your true win probability, and get expected value, edge, and breakeven percentage instantly.
The price you can actually bet (American or decimal).
True price with the vig removed, e.g. from Pinnacle sharp lines.
Expected value is a long-run average, not a guarantee. Individual bets win and lose; edges only converge over hundreds of bets, and short-run variance is large.
How to Use This EV Calculator
Expected value compares the price you are offered against the true probability of winning. The cleanest source of truth is a no-vig fair line: take a sharp two-sided market, strip the margin, and the implied probability that remains is the market's honest estimate. Enter the book's price and the fair price above; a positive EV means the book is paying more than fair value on that side.
Example: a book offers +115 on a side whose no-vig fair price is -105 (51.2% true probability). EV = 0.512 x 1.15 - 0.488 = +10.1% of stake. On $100 bets that is $10.10 of long-run value per bet, subject to real variance along the way.
Stop calculating EV one bet at a time
This calculator does one market at a time. The SharpAPI +EV API runs the same math continuously across 45+ sportsbooks against Pinnacle no-vig references, and streams every positive edge with its EV% the moment it appears. Get a free API key to see live +EV opportunities.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is expected value (EV) in betting?
EV is the long-run average result of a bet: true win probability times profit-if-won, minus lose probability times stake. A +EV bet pays more than the true probability justifies; repeated over a large sample it is expected to profit, though never guaranteed on any single bet.
How is betting EV calculated?
EV% = p x (decimal odds - 1) - (1 - p), where p is the true win probability. At +115 with a 51.2% true probability: 0.512 x 1.15 - 0.488 = +10.1% of stake per bet on average.
Where does the true probability come from?
The standard method is removing the vig from a sharp reference line. Pinnacle two-sided prices with the margin stripped are the industry benchmark for true probability; that is exactly what no-vig fair odds represent.
What is breakeven probability?
The win rate at which a given price neither wins nor loses money: 1 divided by the decimal odds. A -110 line breaks even at 52.4%. If your true probability is above breakeven, the bet is +EV.
Is +EV betting profitable long term?
By definition a genuine +EV edge converges toward profit over a large sample, but variance dominates the short run and losing streaks happen with real edges. Results typically stabilize only after hundreds of bets, and edges must survive limits and line movement.
Can I get +EV bets from an API?
Yes. SharpAPI computes no-vig fair odds from Pinnacle sharp lines and flags +EV opportunities across every book automatically, with the edge percentage in the response, via REST or real-time SSE streaming.
Related Resources
+EV Betting API
Automatic expected value detection across 45+ books
No-Vig Odds API
True fair odds from Pinnacle sharp lines via API
Odds Calculator
Convert odds formats, payouts, and no-vig fair odds
Arbitrage Calculator
Stake splits and locked margin across books
Parlay Calculator
Combined odds and payout across multiple legs
What is +EV Betting?
The concept, the math, and the honest caveats